Fed Policy May Be Accommodative, San Francisco Fed Research Suggests
By CU Today Staff —
WASHINGTON--The Federal Reserve’s current interest-rate policy may actually be supporting economic growth rather than restraining it, according to new San Francisco Fed research that challenges the prevailing view among U.S. central bank policymakers, Reuters reported.
The research focuses on a medium-run estimate of the “neutral” interest rate—the level at which borrowing costs neither stimulate nor slow the economy. Using that measure, the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range could be roughly half to three-quarters of a percentage point below neutral, Reuters reported. That contrasts with estimates based on the longer-run neutral rate, which suggest current policy is about half a percentage point restrictive.
Vasco Curdia, a research adviser at the San Francisco Fed, wrote that using the medium-run measure could allow monetary policy to stabilize inflation and achieve maximum employment more effectively than conventional benchmarks.
“As of August 2026, estimates of the medium-run real natural rate suggest that monetary policy is accommodative, although it's important to keep in mind that the uncertainty around this estimate remains high,” Curdia wrote, according to Reuters.
The findings could complicate the Fed’s assessment of whether additional rate cuts are warranted. Reuters noted policymakers frequently rely on estimates of the neutral rate to determine whether monetary policy is tight or loose, but commonly used policy rules tend to incorporate relatively stable longer-run estimates, while shorter-run measures can be considerably more volatile.
Originally reported by CU Today.